Every January, we make promises to a future version of ourselves.
I’ll be more disciplined.
I’ll finally focus.
This will be the year I change.
We speak with certainty, even optimism.
What we rarely acknowledge is this:
the person we’re making those promises to doesn’t exist yet.
And strangers are terrible at keeping our commitments.
The Hidden Assumption Behind Most Resolutions
New Year’s resolutions are built on a quiet assumption:
If I decide clearly enough, future me will comply.
But future you isn’t more disciplined.
He’s not more motivated.
He’s not operating with more time or fewer constraints.
He’s operating inside the same system—
with the same habits, pressures, and incentives you have today.
Resolution failure isn’t a willpower problem.
It’s a systems mismatch.
A Challenge for Your New Year
Before you make a resolution, pause.
Not to plan.
To picture.
Ask whether the future you’re aiming toward actually feels alive — not impressive, not defensible, but honest to you. Too many resolutions fail because they’re built around what we think we should want, rather than what genuinely pulls us forward (See: How To Set Meaningful Goals).
If you work backward from that image, what is the smallest step you could take today that points in that direction? Not a dramatic commitment. Something modest enough to survive your real schedule and energy.
And then ask one more question: if you took that step, would it give you evidence that you’re on the right path — or would it just make you feel hopeful for a moment? A good resolution doesn’t demand certainty. It produces evidence.
That’s the shift most people miss. They treat January like a declaration, when it should be treated like an experiment. Small, low-risk, and honest enough to survive contact with reality (See: How To Make Better Decisions Under Uncertainty).
Focus on Process, Not Promises
The smarter move isn’t to promise change. It’s to map a direction that energizes you, pick the smallest meaningful action, and use each step as a signal that confirms—or corrects—your trajectory.
This isn’t about willpower. It’s about designing a process that survives reality.
For example, if your future self wants to be more knowledgeable in your field, the typical resolution is to “read a book every month.” That’s the wrong unit of change. The unit that survives reality is 15 minutes of reading that already fits into your day.
That’s the process. The books are a side effect.
The New Year Isn’t Asking for Better Goals
The New Year is asking for fewer false promises, more honest constraints, and systems that let the real you show up, even on your worst days.
Stop promising change to a stranger.
Build something that survives reality.