Every January, we make promises to a future version of ourselves. I’ll be more disciplined.I’ll finally focus.This will be the year I change. We speak with certainty, even optimism. What we rarely acknowledge is this:the person we’re making those promises to doesn’t exist yet. And strangers are terrible at keeping our commitments. The Hidden Assumption Behind Most Resolutions New Year’s … Read More
How to Make Better Decisions Under Uncertainty: A Simple Guide to Bayesian Thinking
When facing a big choice — a product bet, a hiring call, or even a career defining decision — our instinct is to gather more information. We tell ourselves: “We just need one more data point. Then we’ll know for sure.” But in complex environments, certainty is a mirage. The variables are too dynamic, the contexts too fluid. And by … Read More